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FTAI Infrastructure Inc. (FIP)·Q3 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q3 2025 delivered strong operational momentum: revenue rose to $140.56M (+68.6% YoY; +15.0% QoQ) while Adjusted EBITDA increased to $70.93M (+91.9% YoY; +54.6% QoQ), driven by the Wheeling & Lake Erie acquisition (five-week contribution) and excess gas sales at Long Ridge .
  • Versus Wall Street consensus, FIP missed on revenue ($140.56M vs $146.37M*) and EPS (-$1.38 vs -$0.59*), while S&P’s EBITDA consensus matched reported S&P EBITDA (~$58.93M*); company Adjusted EBITDA was materially higher at $70.93M .
  • Management raised consolidated annual EBITDA target to ~“$460M” excluding organic wins, and is exploring strategic alternatives for Long Ridge as it reaches a $160M annual EBITDA run-rate by Q4, with a parent-level bond refi planned by year-end .
  • Stock catalysts ahead: Surface Transportation Board (STB) approval to take active control of Wheeling (expected around year-end), progress on Long Ridge monetization, and new contracts ramping at Jefferson and Repauno following Phase 3 permit at Repauno .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • Rail integration outperformed early: Wheeling standalone Q3 EBITDA ~$20M and combined rail Adjusted EBITDA $29.1M; volumes and revenue up ~10% QoQ at Wheeling with none of the targeted $20M savings yet realized .
  • Long Ridge exceeded plan: EBITDA climbed to $35.7M, capacity factor ~96%, and current gas production >100k MMBTU/day supports reaching $160M annual EBITDA run-rate in Q4 .
  • Strategic positioning improved: Repauno secured Phase 3 cavern permits, enabling 2×640k bbl underground storage; management reiterated compelling economics ($200M capex per cavern, ~$70–80M EBITDA, ~3-year payback) .

Management quotes:

  • “Adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was $70.9 million, up 55% from $45.9 million last quarter… We expect the reported results to continue to grow in the periods ahead.” — CEO Ken Nicholson .
  • “Volumes and revenues at the Wheeling were up approximately 10% versus the company’s second quarter, and EBITDA was up 20%… reflected practically none of the $20 million of annual efficiencies.” — CEO Ken Nicholson .
  • “With current production exceeding 100,000 MMBTUs per day… we anticipate Long Ridge to achieve its $160 million annual EBITDA run rate in this fourth quarter.” — CEO Ken Nicholson .

What Went Wrong

  • GAAP profitability: Net loss attributable to stockholders (pre Series B dividend and extinguishment impacts) widened to -$118.35M (vs -$79.82M in Q2; -$49.97M YoY), pressured by higher interest expense and debt extinguishment losses .
  • EPS and revenue misses vs consensus: Diluted EPS -$1.38 vs -$0.59*, revenue $140.56M vs $146.37M*, highlighting estimate mismatch despite operational gains* .
  • Interest burden remains heavy: Q3 interest expense rose to $73.31M (vs $59.20M in Q2), adding headwind to GAAP results pending planned parent-level refinancing .

Financial Results

Consolidated performance vs prior periods and consensus

MetricQ3 2024Q2 2025Q3 2025
Revenue ($USD Millions)$83.31 $122.29 $140.56
Diluted EPS ($)-$0.45 -$0.73 -$1.38
Net loss to stockholders, pre Series B dividend ($USD Millions)-$49.97 -$79.82 -$118.35
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)$36.93 $45.92 $70.93
EBITDA (S&P) ($USD Millions)*$15.05*$40.31*$58.93*
EBIT Margin %*-5.34%*5.16%*17.16%*
Net Income Margin %*-59.98%*-65.27%*-84.20%*
Adjusted EBITDA Margin % (calc)44.3% 37.6% 50.5%

Estimates and margin values marked with * retrieved from S&P Global.

Versus consensus (S&P Global)

MetricQ2 2025 Estimate*Q2 2025 ActualQ3 2025 Estimate*Q3 2025 Actual
Revenue ($USD Millions)$135.63*$122.29 $146.37*$140.56
Primary EPS (USD)-$0.37*-$0.73 -$0.59*-$1.38
EBITDA (S&P) ($USD Millions)$58.48*$40.31*$58.93*$58.93*

Estimates marked with * retrieved from S&P Global.

Segment Adjusted EBITDA

Segment ($USD Thousands)Q2 2025Q3 2025
Railroad$20,671 $29,128
Jefferson Terminal$11,082 $11,024
Repauno-$2,082 $660
Power and Gas (Long Ridge)$22,971 $35,742
Four Core Segments Total$52,642 $76,554

KPIs

KPIQ2 2025Q3 2025
Long Ridge capacity factor83% (incl. planned outage) 96%
Gas production (MMBTU/day)~64,000 >100,000
Wheeling standalone EBITDAN/A~$20,000
Jefferson revenue ($USD Millions)$21.60 $21.10
Dividend per common share ($)$0.03 $0.03

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Consolidated annual EBITDA targetNext 12 months“Exceed $450M” including Wheeling (Q2) ~“$460M” excluding organic wins Raised
Long Ridge annual EBITDA run-rateQ4 2025Reach ~$160M by end of Q3 Achieve ~$160M in Q4 Timing updated (maintained level)
Jefferson incremental EBITDA (contracts)Commencing in coming months~$20M/year ~$20M/year Maintained
Repauno Phase 2 EBITDAPost Phase 2 completion (by end 2026)~$80M/year ~$80M/year; Phase 3 permitted Maintained; Phase 3 permit secured
Parent-level refinancingBy year-end 2025Plan refi in fall into long-term bonds Target year-end bond issuance; no asset sale needed Clarified timing
DividendQuarterly$0.03 (Q1/Q2) $0.03 (declared Oct 29; payable Nov 28) Maintained

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q1 2025 and Q2 2025)Current Period (Q3 2025)Trend
Rail platform scale & synergiesAnnounced Wheeling acquisition; target $200M rail EBITDA by 2026; $20M cost savings, Repauno-linked carloads ~30k Wheeling volumes/revenue +10% QoQ; EBITDA +20% QoQ; combined target raised to ≥$220M rail EBITDA by end-2026 Positive acceleration
Long Ridge operations & monetizationFast-tracked 20 MW uprate; data center structures under negotiation; target $160M run-rate by midyear >100k MMBTU/day; capacity factor ~96%; plan strategic alternatives/sale; ~$160M run-rate in Q4 Execution + monetization
Repauno Phase 2 and Phase 3Phase 2 financed ($300M tax-exempt); LOI added; ~71k bpd; ~$80M EBITDA; Phase 3 permit expected by Q3 end Phase 3 permit received; two caverns (2×640k bbl); ~$200M/cavern capex; ~$70–80M EBITDA each, ~2–3 years build Milestone achieved
Capital structure & refinancingPlan refi of parent notes in fall; lower fixed charges Year-end bond targeted; ample distributable rail cash; deleveraging priority; no asset sale required Visibility improved
Macro/tariffs & energy exportsEurope energy flow tailwinds; PJM capacity price rising; positive for Repauno Continued strong demand backdrop for liquids exports; Phase 2 largely sold out; Phase 3 expands scope Supportive macro

Management Commentary

  • “The events of the third quarter… put us in a position to generate in excess of $450 million of adjusted EBITDA on an annual basis… Our $460 million annual target excludes several important opportunities.” — CEO Ken Nicholson .
  • “We plan to refinance our existing parent-level debt with a new bond issuance in the coming weeks… We expect the new bonds to be the only debt at our parent level…” — CEO Ken Nicholson .
  • “We plan to explore strategic alternatives for [Long Ridge]… With the macro environment as strong as ever… we have high expectations for the potential sale.” — CEO Ken Nicholson .
  • “Phase three… two underground caverns each at 640,000 barrels… building one cavern would take about $200 million… generating about $70 to $80 million of annual EBITDA… a three-year payback.” — CEO Ken Nicholson .

Q&A Highlights

  • Rail synergy detail: $20M cost savings from purchasing power, elimination of redundancies, network optimization; expanded market reach between Ohio and Pittsburgh; potential further M&A in rail .
  • STB approval timing: target end-November decision (subject to shutdown) and priority at STB; reasonable to expect by year-end .
  • Cash generation and uses: combined rail normalized cash flow ~$32–35M for Q3; distributable to parent for debt service and deleveraging; expect material growth with efficiencies .
  • Parent refi specifics: aim to complete by year-end; likely senior notes with at least five-year term and shorter call protection to enable deleveraging; no asset sale needed to execute .
  • Repauno Phase 3 capex/timing: ~$200M per cavern; ~2–3 years to build; economics “wildly compelling”; financing via tax-exempt market anticipated .

Estimates Context

  • Q3 2025 revenue missed consensus ($140.56M vs $146.37M*), and EPS missed (-$1.38 vs -$0.59*). S&P EBITDA consensus matched S&P-reported EBITDA (~$58.93M*), while company Adjusted EBITDA was $70.93M .
  • With Q4 including full-period contributions from Wheeling and WV gas, consensus may need to lift Long Ridge assumptions and rail segment EBITDA run-rates as contracts/efficiencies activate .

Estimates marked with * retrieved from S&P Global.

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Execution is accelerating: sequential Adjusted EBITDA +54.6% to $70.93M with more runway as Wheeling synergies and contracts ramp .
  • Near-term catalysts: STB approval for Wheeling control, parent bond issuance, Long Ridge monetization; each could de-risk balance sheet and crystallize value .
  • Repauno optionality: Phase 2 largely committed (~$80M EBITDA), Phase 3 permit unlocks step-change capacity with attractive ROI and tax-exempt financing potential .
  • Estimate resets likely: Q3 revenue/EPS misses vs consensus suggest models underestimating transition impacts and non-GAAP dynamics; Q4 should reflect full-period gas/Wheeling .
  • Deleveraging path: rail cash flows distributable to parent, plus potential Long Ridge sale proceeds, support deleveraging post-refi .
  • Dividend maintained at $0.03; signals confidence while prioritizing growth and balance sheet actions .
  • Watch Jefferson: two contracts with MVCs (~$20M annual EBITDA) starting in coming months; incremental contracts in late-stage talks could add without significant capex .